And now, a look back to Correspondents Look Ahead
, first broadcast on 30 December 2006. This year's panel:
- Paul Wood, defence correspondent, who said that the civil war in Iraq will begin with a Shi'ite uprising. This tended not to happen, following a further infusion of invading troops.
- Sarah Muckagee, environment, predicted that the FARCE will reclaim leadership on climate change, but not through the drunk. We're calling this a miss, it's the Australians who made a volte-face.
- Caroline Wyatt, France correspondent, said that the presidential election would be close, but won by Mme. Royal. Close, but a miss is as good as a mile.
- Justin Webb, Yankees, said that Dick Chainey would resign to be replaced by John McCain. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
- James Robbins, diplomatic, suggested a shocking rise in the price of oil sowing the seeds of global recession. This happened; his suggested cause was a terrorist outrage, rather than simple rising demand.
- Steven Sackur, host, went for Menzies Campbell to be replaced as Lib Dem leader by Nick Clegg. Really, he did. Sackur had called for Charles Kennedy to be axed in the 2005 edition, and will be going for the hat-trick for 2008.
The discussion began with Prime Minister Brown; Robbins pointed out that Brown had refused to take calls from Europe while in the Treasury, and that he was clearly not part of Europe. Wood floated the balloon that the UK might pull out of Iraq entirely; at this time, a withdrawal from Basra City had been confirmed. Muckagee pointed out that he had no green credentials, seeing climate change only as a chance for taxes to rise. These were salient points, particularly his pathological aversion to Europe.
Wyatt spoke about the rise and rise of Mme. Royal, and the critic who said The presidential contest is not a beauty contest, as the result showed. Wyatt was right to say that the election would be close. Robbins backed M. Popup, and had a polite argument with Wyatt about the introduction of Thatcherist reform into France. The lurch to the right did happen, but Wyatt was correct that the French wanted change without change.
Webb had been filing his nails during this bit, and wondered who would be the candidate for 2008? Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (Webb's nominee for Person of the Year 2006) were front-runners for the right; Mitt Romney was postulated for the moronic far-right. Wood asked after John McCain; Webb said McCain had peaked too early, and was tarnished by his support for sending more troops to Occupied Iraq. Muckagee predicted that the senate would start to look at greenhouse gas emissions: we've not seen much evidence of this. Webb muttered about the serial sex pest Arnold Schwarzenegger coming to the Potomac Basin and talking to them about the environment; not a flicker.
To the middle east, and Wood continued to decry the failure of western governments in Baghdad, including his personal reluctance to go to Occupied Iraq. Robbins saw the Democracy Project foundering: the Lebanese government will fall, Palestine would collapse, and Iraq would degenerate into civil war. On the most generous assessment, this is fairly wrong: Lebanon has had a bit of a better year, Palestine has split into Hamas and Fatah areas, and Iraq has not gone. Yet.
Webb proposed that a drunkard would go to Iran and shake hands with President Ahmenejad; instead, the Iranian came to the drunk tank and was roundly abused by people who should know better. Webb compared this idea to Nixon in China; Robbins and Wood wondered what Webb was on, and could they have some. Wood suggested greated instability in Egypt, and there was no great reason for optimism over the Palestine / Israel problem. The latter one was, regrettably, correct.
Energy Security is Muckagee's home territory, and she reckoned that it would be far up the political agenda. It's the problem of the instability of many of the regimes from which the west gets its energy. The perpetual problem in the Persian Gulf are underpinned by its exports of oil. Russia is playing silly wotsits over its supply of gas. Wyatt said that if the West wasn't scared, it should be. Russian energy minister Sergei Ivanov is as hard as nails, said Sackur, suggesting that Gazprom would buy up Centrica. Muckagee briefly floated the idea of using more coal, and Webb interjected to say that it was popular in Eastern Europe and in the Mississippi basin. Energy security hasn't really registered this year, it's been all about greenhouse gases, but it's lurking in the background.
Back to Iran, and Robbins said that the international community had Done Something by passing sanctions late in 2006, and it was now time for carrots. Wood asked Webb if his friend the drunkard would be a gambler and launch strikes against the rumoured nuclear sites. No, suggested Webb, saying that the drunk was the sort who would be escorted out of a seedy casino at 4 in the morning. The non-proliferation treaty was a bit of a dead duck, was the panel's consensus. All of this was reasonable.
People of the Year:
- Caroline Wyatt: Jean-Marie le Pen, whose ideas still had some resonance. Nope, not even returned to parliament. 576 mentions in the UK press this year.
- James Robbins: Ban Ki Moon, new leader of the UN. Hasn't really seized the headlines, but has more entries than anyone else. 755
- Justin Webb: the new senator Jim Webb, who almost came to blows with the drunk. Scarcely on the radar. 45
- Sarah Muckagee: Steve Howard of The Climate Group, a campaigning charity with good connections. Not a flicker. 14
- Paul Wood: Iyad Allawi, former Iraqi prime minister who had been talking with the opposition. 37
- Steven Sackur: President Obasanjo of Nigeria, who was scheduled to hand power over in April to whoever won the election. 188
On to the environment, and Muckagee spoke of the various ways that the developing world was using solar power - where it could afford it. Wyatt said that the Germans were streets ahead of everyone else, and that Frau Merkel would do something about it. Muckagee also wondered about the shortage of water. Again, something turned out to be not very much.
Back to last year's row on anti-Merkinism. Wood said that the tide was turning, and that people might rally round the underdog. Webb claimed that the market system beloved of that area was a good idea, and proposed that religious divisions and other internal wonkery would be far less visible. This was flat-out wrong. Robbins pointed out that there are a lot of places where this sort of intervention would not go down well.
Where would you most like to be?
- Caroline Wyatt: With one of the candidates on 6 May, when the results come through.
- Justin Webb: Watching when Brown talks to the alkie on assuming power.
- James Robbins: Iran, preferably an inner-council meeting.
- Paul Wood: To the Oval Office, just for the history.
- Sarah Muckagee: Polar bears in the arctic. Or supporting England in the rugby world cup final.
- Steven Sackur: Cheering England against Australia in the cricket world cup final.
And that was Look Back at Correspondents Look Ahead to 2007
. You can hear Correspondents Look Ahead to 2008
on Radio 4 at 8.02 on Friday night, repeated 1.10 Saturday afternoon, or on Listen Again. We'll be reviewing the programme around this time next year.
