23September
There's been an awful lot of chatter about a possible election on 25 October or 1 November. (Thanks, Mr. the Soup Dragon. Thagon.) UK Polling Report looks into what an autumn election might bring; an increase for the Lib Dems, a bounce for incumbent Conservative MPs, and nothing much guaranteed for anyone.
Our analysis of the local election results gives some interesting results. Forget Labour gains in Worcester and Birmingham, and concentrate on the bigger picture. We now have 13 weeks of results since ancien British prime minister Mister Tony Blair resigned, and here's the average net transfer over that time:
| Now | 20 July | |
|---|---|---|
| Con from Lab | +5.66% | +6.56% |
| Con from LD | +0.75% | +2.02% |
| Lab from LD | -4.91% | -4.54% |
The Conservatives continue to lose ground to Labour, but the gap is only closing by 1% per quarter. The Lib Dems are regaining some of the ground they lost to the Conservatives early this year, and continue to chip away at Labour votes.
| Now | 20 July | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 281-305 | 292-322 |
| Labour | 233-258 | 221-250 |
| Lib Dem | 73-82 | 68-78 |
| Others | 34-35 | 35 |
| Conservative Overall Majority | (-90)-(-40) | (-66)-(-6) |
If the council swings were repeated nationally, Mr. the Soup Dragon wouldn't even be the largest party.
Even looking at just the last month's by-election results - and these were mostly in areas where Labour did particularly badly last time out, and had much room to recover - we still find a 3.7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, and a central projection of Lib Dems holding the balance of power.
In short, if Mr. the Soup Dragon were to call an election this autumn, he would be taking a needless risk. If there's one thing we know about Mr. the Soup Dragon, it's that he doesn't take risks.
