29August
A few thoughts on the state of the parties.
1a. Health permitting, Mr. Campbell needs to remain as leader until the next general election. Possibly longer. Losing Mr. Kennedy was unfortunate, and once he's back in better health, it would be good PR to appoint him to a senior position (home affairs?)
1b. Mr. Cameron is the first credible Conservative prime minister since Mr. Major. This, alone, should ensure his critics concentrate on policy rather than personality. His eighteen-month honeymoon is now over.
1c. Mr. Brown is Mister Blair's heir. This is both an advantage, as the personalised opposition is melting away; and a disadvantage, as there is no clear shift in policy. He has a maximum of 34 months, and probably not much more than 20, remaining to prove himself in office before seeking re-election.
2a. Since Mr. Kennedy's departure, the psephology has changed. The flow of 2% of the electorate from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems in late 2005 has been reversed, and is now running in the opposite direction. Assuming that two-fifths of these people will return to the Conservatives by the next election, this transfer costs the Lib Dems around 9 seats, mostly to the Conservatives. It also gives the Conservatives a boost in about 20 Labour seats, sufficient to cost Mr. Brown his working majority.
2b. In late 2005, about 5% of the electorate had moved from Labour to the Lib Dems. This figure increased during 2006, while Labour suffered its own internal struggles. The latest figures suggest that there's still a 5% transfer from Labour to the Lib Dems. Again, assuming a two-fifths return rate, this is far more profitable to the Lib Dems; on its own, it adds 11 seats to the LD total, and 31 to the Conservatives.
2c. When combined, and ignoring the Conservative - Labour transfer, the Lib Dem swings would leave Labour the largest single party, and the Lib Dems capable of forming a coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.
2d. The most recent figures show 6.5% of the electorate moving from Labour to the Conservatives. Still assuming two-fifths will revert, this costs Labour about 70 seats. This is the figure most likely to change following Mr. Brown's accession to the Labour leadership. Firm data will be gathered during September; we do not propose to speculate until then.
3a. At this stage, the most likely outcome of the next general election is a hung parliament, or a government without a clear working majority. It is too early to determine whether the Liberal Democrats will be able to choose their coalition partners.
3b. It is possible to construct a scenario where the Liberal Democrats increase their representation, but could only form a majority government in coalition with one other party. Indeed, the most recent run of our DAVIDBUTLER model gave C 299, Lab 244, LD 73; a putative Lab+LD coalition would (at the very least) need a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the Democratic Unionists (or SNP) to survive.
4. Mr. Campbell and his party need to determine if they are a party of tactical opposition to the Conservatives, if they are a party of tactical opposition to Labour, or if they are a party of philosophical difference to the other large minorities. Assuming the latter, Mr. Campbell and other leading lights need to articulate their different position.
In the few days since we drafted this piece, Mr. Campbell has repeated his party's position on Iraq and proposed a carbon-neutral country by 2040. Just the sort of thing to keep the headlines.
