20July
Ah, yes. Two by-election results came in in the early hours of Friday morning. In Sedgefield, a seat vacated by the appointment of Mr. Blair as Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, the candidates saving their deposit were:
P. Wilson Lab 12,528 44.8 -14.1 G.M. Stone L Dem 5,572 19.9 + 8.0 G.M. Robb C 4,082 14.6 + 0.2 A. Spence BNP 2,494 8.9 P. Gittins Ind 1,885 6.7
We're not entirely sure what Mr. Gittins stood for, such has been the lax coverage of the election. The UIP and Green Party secured 1.9% and 1.2% respectively, four other candidates secured less than 1%. The transfers of note:
C - Lab: +3.54% Lab - LD: -8.36%
In Ealing Southall, a seat vacated by the death of Mr. Khabra, the candidates saving their deposit were:
V.K. Sharma Lab 15,188 41.5 - 7.3 N. Bakhai L Dem 10,118 27.6 + 3.2 S.S. Lit C 8,230 22.5 + 0.9
The Green Party candidate had 3.1%, the RESPECT candidate 1.6%, and amongst seven candidates failing to secure 1%, the Loonies beat the English Democrats. The transfers of note:
C - Lab: +1.99% Lab - LD: -3.29%
Taking these two seats together, we find a swing away from Labour, with the Lib Dems taking roughly two votes to each one going to the Conservatives. If we were to run these figures through the Swingometer - and remember, this is just a bit of fun! - we get the following:
| Now | 30 June | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 273 | 301-346 |
| Labour | 266 | 205-245 |
| Lib Dem | 78 | 59-72 |
| Others | 33 | 35 |
| Conservative Overall Majority | (-104) | (-48)-42 |
No clear result there. Turning now to the council by-elections, and here's the current state of the parties:
| Now | 30 June | |
|---|---|---|
| Con from Lab | +6.56% | +7.88% |
| Con from LD | +2.02% | +3.84% |
| Lab from LD | -4.54% | -4.04% |
| Now | 30 June | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 292-322 | 301-346 |
| Labour | 221-250 | 205-245 |
| Lib Dem | 68-78 | 59-72 |
| Others | 35 | 35 |
| Conservative Overall Majority | (-66)-(-6) | (-48)-42 |
For the first time in over a year, we're not predicting a Conservative overall majority at all. But neither are we predicting any chance of a Labour government; the way the figures stack up, a Labour + Lib Dem coalition would not command an overall majority.
