30June

We have a by-election in Ealing Southall, following the death of Piara Khabra. Mr. Khabra entered the Commons in 1992. At the 1997 election, he secured 60% of the vote, with the Conservative on 21%. In 2001, an Independent Asian candidate came second; almost all of his 12.3% vote came from Mr. Khabra. This candidate has been selected as the Conservative candidate in the by-election. The Liberal Democrats moved up into second place in 2005, picking up all of the Independent Asian candidate's vote.

Ealing Southall is a safe Labour seat, even at its nadir in 1987 the party had a 15% majority, and has never fallen below 45% of the vote. The Conservatives will be looking to increase their vote and overtake the Liberal Democrats, but they've never polled above 25% in this constituency. The Lib Dems will be looking to pull off another London by-election surprise, following their remarkable success in Brent South a few years ago. The Green Party has twice been within a few hundred votes of saving its deposit, but the possible intervention of RESPECT may be disadvantageous.

Our prediction is for Labour to hold the seat, but the Lib Dems will slash their majority. Betting: Labour 5/6, Lib Dems 6/4, Conservatives 3/1, RESPECT 10/1, 100/1 any other.

And we have a by-election in Sedgefield, following the appointment of Anthony Blair as Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds. Mr. Blair entered the Commons in 1983. He's secured at least 60% of the vote at the last three elections, and also faced a strong challenge from an independent candidate at the 2005 vote. Even at the 1983 nadir, the new candidate secured 47% of the vote. It's not clear if the Lib Dems or Conservatives should be considered favourite for second place; the Conservatives were about a thousand clear last time.

Our prediction is for Labour to hold the seat reasonably comfortably; interest will centre on who finishes second. Betting: Labour 1/3, Conservatives 3/1, Lib Dems 4/1, 50/1 any other.

Quentin Davies C, Grantham and Stamford has defected. He should now be captioned as CLab, Grantham and Stamford.

We decline to attach much importance to the opinion poll released to-day showing a Labour lead. Come back at the end of July and see if it still holds.

Turning to the local council by-election swingometer, and we have some interesting trends. The direct transfer from Labour to the Conservatives in the three months to 21 June was slightly less than 8%; when we last looked at the figures just before Easter, it was slightly more than 8%. No significant change. The transfer of just over 1% of Conservative voted to the Lib Dems has reversed, and it's now a net movement of almost 4% from the LDs to the Cons. The LDs are also gaining fewer votes from Labour – down from 9.5% to 4%.

The net result of this is no particular change for the Conservatives – the central prediction shows them still bobbling along at about 325 seats, just what they need to secure an overall majority, but perhaps not a working one. Labour has clearly moved up from our last projection, the central projection puts them around 220 seats. Labour's net gains come from the Lib Dems, who drop from 90 or so to a central projection of around 67. The transfer of seats from present is still mostly Labour to Conservative; the Lib Dems lose seats to the Tories, but win back roughly as many from Labour.

This is, of course, only a rough-and-ready projection, and we intend for it to be used as a measure of which way the psephological wind is blowing. We do not advise anyone to stake money or honour based purely on its results. It's just a bit of fun.

| Permanent link