Livejournal June 2007 - The Snow In The Summer or So-So

30June

The Decline of Livejournal this month

The headlines

size	accounts	13254117	213128	1.63%
size	accounts_active_1	527792	24944	4.96%
size	accounts_active_30	1781346	5941	0.33%
size	accounts_active_7	1104893	3013	0.27%
userinfo	total	13238056	211297	1.62%
userinfo	updated	8316484	91691	1.11%
userinfo	updated_last1	203672	18179	9.80%
userinfo	updated_last30	1012745	-6814	-0.67%
userinfo	updated_last7	585239	3486	0.60%

Accounts climbs by 1.6%, Userinfo:updated by 1.1%. Active:30 makes a small climb, but is still lower than April.

Sex

gender	F	3664023	69276	1.89%
gender	M	1793422	35653	1.99%
gender	U	2125273	18342	0.86%

Total sex declared: 7582718 (+123271, 1.65%) (57% of Accounts, 91% of Updated.) Males are still signing up faster than females, the F/M ratio stands at 2.043 (-0.002).

Age

Here's a list of the ages with at least 100,000 people:

age	15	192137	126	0.07%
age	16	355092	-1681	-0.47%
age	17	521763	6498	1.25%
age	18	606382	10017	1.65%
age	19	630673	14108	2.24%
age	20	599030	18167	3.03%
age	21	542475	14849	2.74%
age	22	461759	16347	3.54%
age	23	368426	15114	4.10%
age	24	305542	10872	3.56%
age	25	248365	10420	4.20%
age	26	216713	6442	2.97%
age	27	196460	11408	5.81%
age	28	133590	5845	4.38%
age	29	112137	5278	4.71%

Total declaring an age: 6513931 (+193848, 3.07%) (86% of Sex (up 4%), 78% of Updated (up 3%).) Modal age remains 19. Quartiles come at 18.8 (+0.1), 21.4 (nc), 25.7 (+0.1). We're not at all sure what's happening here, especially given the significant losses in all categories last month - we suspect that was caused by a technical fault.

Top 20 Countries

country	US	3389459	16125	0.48%
country	RU	482169	8508	1.76%
country	CA	288434	1464	0.51%
country	UK	250976	2122	0.85%
country	AU	118937	907	0.76%
country	UA	57588	1300	2.26%
country	PH	46699	437	0.94%
country	SG	46020	1219	2.65%
country	DE	44019	588	1.34%
country	FI	35060	478	1.36%
country	JP	29019	403	1.39%
country	NL	24068	260	1.08%
country	BY	18978	419	2.21%
country	IL	18285	207	1.13%
country	NZ	17332	134	0.77%
country	BR	16647	285	1.71%
country	ES	16510	220	1.33%
country	FR	15895	196	1.23%
country	SE	11701	123	1.05%
country	IE	10996	75	0.68%

224 other countries: 266631

Total countries declared: 5205423 (+38197, 0.74%) (80% of those declaring an Age (-4), 69% of Sex (nc), 63% of Active (+1%)).

No change in the order of the top 20, and growth is again almost entirely powered by the Russia-Belarus-Ukraine bloc, and by South East Asia - Malaysia moves into 23rd place and over 10,000 users. The gaps beneath the 20: Ireland's lead over India is 186 (-14), over Italy 330 (-81), over Malaysia 855 (-29).

Signups

For our purposes, the June signup month runs from 30 May to 28 June. Data for the last two days are not available at the time of writing.

For the third month running, more signups this year than last, with 17 days bringing in more customers.

Livejournal signups, June 2002-7
Total signups:
2002 - 32996
2003 - 54996
2004 - 319182
2005 - 314300
2006 - 209086
2007 - 217362

Syndicated feeds

Top 10
Blogthings	32369	-400
Postsecret	27404	508
Word of the Day	16969	59
Gaiman	16232	93
XKCD	11769	988
Astronomy picture	11537	107
Penny Arcade	9466	73
Sinfest	9052	84
Overheardnyc	8448	94
VG Cats	8293	-10

XKCD moves up one place.

Readership of feed ranked:
50	1472 (+2)
100	713 (+8)
200	316 (+4)
500	135 (nc)
1000	60 (nc)

The Zipf distribution allows us to approximate n = (1/k^s)*a
where n = number of readers
k = rank
s = exponent (experimentally, 1.15)
a = scalar multiple (experimentally, 137,200)

This gives an almost identical shape to last month's distribution, where s=1.15 and a=135,700.

We might extend the table:

2500	17 (nc)
5000	8 (nc)
10000	3 (nc)
25000	1 (nc)
50000	1 (nc)

We're still reasonably confident that around 50,000 feeds have at least one reader. It's not known how many feeds are consumed.

These are the statistics. Conclusions, as ever, are yours.

Commentary this month

Barak Berkowitz wrote again regarding proposals to change the company's operations. We were struck, yet again, by the company's sole focus on its local advocacy groups. While we generally support the efforts of the EFF, they are a group operating specifically in the rebel provinces. Creative Commons licenses revolve money and attribution; entirely a North American view of what's important. A CCL doesn't allow one to say, You may reproduce short extracts, properly attributed, in a for-profit publication, but not if the publication is owned by News International or Associated Newspapers. Indeed, it doesn't even touch on the moral rights that are an integral part of copyright in Europe, but generally ignored by the North Americans. It would surely be advantageous for Six Apart to explore other ways of working, and perhaps look to cherry-pick the best bits of many methods.

Mr. Berkowitz also implies that Livejournal is one homogenous community. As anyone who actually uses the site will know, Livejournal is a large and sprawling network of hetrogenous micro-communities. Measures that work on sites where everyone is (essentially) reading the same content tend not to work where there are many disjoint social circles. Rather than emulating Metafilter, they should be looking into the BBC message boards.

In comments, some suggested a constitution, spelling out things that the site's customers could expect from the management. But such a document already exists: it is the Social Contract. Six Apart has attempted to publicly repudiate this contract, and it may not apply to accounts created since their purchase in early 2005, but the Social Contract is a contract. It is an integral part of the terms of service, and simply cannot be broken by one party alone, no matter how inconvenient its terms might be.

Six Apart sold permanent accounts for a week. As was the case in the 2005 sale, the nominal price was USD 150 (€111.71). Adjusted for eurozone inflation and allowing for currency fluctuations, this was a reduction of almost €20.

Early purchasers were invited to select amongst four nominated causes to receive a USD 25 (€18.50) donation. The causes were the EFF, a group of activists working almost exclusively in the rebel provinces; RAINN, a group of sex-abuse activists working exclusively in the rebel provinces; Creative Commons, a group promoting their particular viewpoint on copyright reform from the viewpoint of the rebel provinces; and Witness, a group promoting human rights around the world from a base in the rebel provinces.

Why did Six Apart choose Witness and not the longer-established and more-recognised Amnesty International? It's very simple: All donations to Witness are tax-deductible to the full extent of the law. Witness supporters are acknowledged in our annual report. (source) The power of good publicity and a tax break. As Amnesty falls under the UK's laws, its political aims mean it is not regarded as a charity, donations cannot be offset against tax, and the organisation chooses not to give publicity to donors.

In the publicity for this cash-grab, CEO Barak Berkowitz wittered on about such meaningless claptrap as creating an economy that encourages sharing, and using technology to improve the world. He was quoted as saying that the company would address some of the concerns expressed by its customers:

Content that 6A is legally able, but is unwilling, to host? If the company is standing by its published goals to support legitimate content, that would be a distinction without a difference. Building a viable reputation system for distributed content? That would be technologically difficult and the social equivalent of turning base metal into gold. Six Apart adopting a meaningful privacy policy? Pigs will fly before that company abides by the Eight Principles.

And pigs will fly before Warriors [sic] for Innocence get a clue.

Abraham Hassan (who enjoys the support of Six Apart even after he told a customer to go away) put the corporate spin on things. Some sections jump out at us. There were several miscommunications internally regarding the changes we wanted to make in enforcement, and what we enforced prohibited listing any illegal activity as an interest. The Abuse mob managed to get the wrong end of the stick again, almost certainly because they are neither professional in standing nor professional in operation.

Our goal was to make sure that profiles were being held to the same standards as other content. This is no re-assurance; the Tit or No Tit brew-ha-ha a year earlier exposed the lack of common standards. One reasonable interpretation of Mr. Hassan's statement is: the guidance proscribing exposed nipples on default avatars has now been superceded by this admonition to look at the picture, profile, and journal.

CEO Barak "I'm in the money" Berkowitz stated, Our number one goal is to encourage and promote a free and open community. We will only intervene to the extent needed to avoid the site being used as a vehicle for illegal activities. And then promptly contradicted himself, No content that is created to plan, encourage, or advocate hate crimes One person's hate crime is another person's free expression. By setting a standard different from the law of the land, Six Apart opens up a whole new can of worms. Mittelfeld's comment speaks volumes: Go to 20 different countries around the world and ask them what they think a hate crime is, and you'll probably get at least 15 different answers -- each with different degrees of how much planning, encouragement and/or action is actually required before it officially becomes a criminal activity.

We earlier noted the Privacy International report into privacy matters. PI ranks Livejournal as generally privacy aware, the second-highest of six categories, level with the BBC, Wikipedia, and Last FM (prior to its takeover by CBS). We query whether all four of these services are on a par.

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