Livejournal May 2007 - The Snow In The Summer or So-So

32May

The Decline of Livejournal this month

During May, Livejournal purged an undisclosed number of long-deleted accounts. This has had a significant affect on the member statistics, particularly in the age section.

The headlines

size	accounts	13040989	209732	1.63%
size	accounts_active_1	502848	40617	8.79%
size	accounts_active_30	1775405	-40149	-2.21%
size	accounts_active_7	1101880	-44962	-3.92%
userinfo	total	13026759	209839	1.64%
userinfo	updated	8224793	89691	1.10%
userinfo	updated_last1	185493	11944	6.88%
userinfo	updated_last30	1019559	-34549	-3.28%
userinfo	updated_last7	581753	-40511	-6.51%

It's difficult to draw accurate conclusions regarding the trend in accounts overall because of the deleted accounts. After standing still last month, active:30 takes another 2% drop - it's now down by almost 5% since the end of February.

For those reading this without seeing a previous entry, we treat userinfo:updated as a proxy for all human users.

Sex

gender	F	3594747	66317	1.88%
gender	M	1757769	35739	2.08%
gender	U	2106931	18621	0.89%

Total gender declared: 7459447 (+120677, 1.64%) (57% of Accounts, 91% of Updated.) Males are still signing up faster than females, the F/M ratio stands at 2.045 (-0.004).

Age

Here's a list of the ages with at least 100,000 people:

age	15	192011	1482	0.77%
age	16	356773	2705	0.76%
age	17	515265	-5126	-0.99%
age	18	596365	-9937	-1.67%
age	19	616565	-15176	-2.46%
age	20	580863	-16908	-2.91%
age	21	527626	-17031	-3.23%
age	22	445412	-17570	-3.94%
age	23	353312	-11921	-3.37%
age	24	294670	-12067	-4.10%
age	25	237945	-9697	-4.08%
age	26	210271	-6963	-3.31%
age	27	185052	-10860	-5.87%
age	28	127745	-5935	-4.65%
age	29	106859	-4931	-4.61%

Total declaring an age: 6320083 (+186090, 3.03%) (82% of Sex (down 1%), 75% of Updated (no change).) Modal age remains 19. Quartiles come at 18.7 (+0.1), 21.4 (+0.1), 25.6 (+0.1), which suggests that the purged journals were a statistically random sample.

Top 20 Countries

US	3373334	15655	0.46%
RU	473661	9141	1.93%
CA	286970	1507	0.53%
UK	248854	2201	0.88%
AU	118030	994	0.84%
UA	56288	1410	2.50%
PH	46262	537	1.16%
SG	44801	1193	2.66%
DE	43431	614	1.41%
FI	34582	417	1.21%
JP	28616	305	1.07%
NL	23808	210	0.88%
BY	18559	444	2.39%
IL	18078	251	1.39%
NZ	17198	180	1.05%
BR	16362	203	1.24%
ES	16290	170	1.04%
FR	15699	213	1.36%
SE	11578	133	1.15%
IE	10921	100	0.92%

224 other countries: 263904

Total countries declared: 5167226 (+38648, 0.75%) (84% of those declaring an Age (nc), 69% of Sex (-1%), 62% of Active (-1%)).

No change in the order of the top 20, and note that growth is almost entirely powered by the Russia-Belarus-Ukraine bloc, and by South East Asia - Malaysia moves into 23rd place and over 10,000 users. The gaps beneath the 20: Ireland's lead over India is 200 (+41), over Italy 421 (-42), and Malaysia needs 884 to break into the top 20.

Signups

For our purposes, the April signup month runs from 29 April to 29 May. Data are not available for 29 May 2007, rather annoyingly.

Again, more signups this year than last, with 19 days bringing in more customers. Even so, the gap to 2005 was never less than 1200 per day.

Livejournal signups, May 2002-7
Total signups:
2002 - 32996
2003 - 54996
2004 - 319182
2005 - 314300
2006 - 209086
2007 - 217362

Syndicated feeds

Top 10
Blogthings	32769	-132
Postsecret	26896	501
Word of the Day	16910	32
Gaiman	16139	189
Astronomy picture	11430	122
XKCD	10781	1338
Penny Arcade	9393	74
Sinfest	8968	51
Overheardnyc	8354	87
VG Cats	8303	9

Overheardnyc moves up one place.

Readership of feed ranked:
50	1470 (+7)
100	705 (+11)
200	312 (-6)
500	135 (+1)
1000	60 (nc)

The Zipf distribution allows us to approximate n = (1/k^s)*a
where n = number of readers
k = rank
s = exponent (experimentally, 1.15)
a = scalar multiple (experimentally, 135,700)

This gives an almost identical shape to last month's distribution, where s=1.15 and a=135,200.

We might extend the table:

2500	17 (nc)
5000	8 (nc)
10000	3 (nc)
25000	1 (nc)
50000	1 (nc)

We're still reasonably confident that around 50,000 feeds have at least one reader. It's not known how many feeds are consumed.

These are the statistics. Conclusions, as ever, are yours.

Commentary this month

We've already dealt with Strikeout in a post yesterday.

Six Apart's latest move is to display advertising to its paying customers. The company has introduced an advertising layout, which contains two links to the sponsor, and a web bug from doubleclick.net. This bug displays to logged in paid users. The sponsored layout contains a further call to action, showing links encouraging viewers of the journal (but not the owner) to use this theme at the top and side of the layout, even if the viewer is already using the sponsored system. The resistance charts the number of ways in which this is wrong.

For further illumination, we note the OFCOM broadcast code contains the following rule:

9.14 Sponsorship must be clearly separated from advertising. Sponsor credits must not contain advertising messages or calls to action. In particular, credits must not encourage the purchase or rental of the products or services of the sponsor or a third party.

While the EU directives behind this rule do not apply to the internet, is it so unreasonable that we might expect the principles to transfer?

A system to automatically transcribe phone posts was soft-launched. This appears to have a pretty significant flaw: the automatic translation is actually performed by people in an Indian call-centre. If this is automated then we're Dutchmen.

Nope, not orange.

Livejournal has utterly broken YADIS by forcing people to grant permission for third-parties to validate their identity. You'll recall that, when YADIS was first launched, we said, we'd be more worried if distinct sites were to share logons, it's a greater privacy risk. Still, Mr Fitzpatrick doesn't care for our privacy. Bradley Fitzpatrick, who claimed to have invented YADIS, said, If you don't trust LiveJournal to be your identity authority, use a different identity authority, or run your own.. We note the irony that Six Apart, the company that invented YADIS, is the first to abuse it, and have already made a separate post on this matter.

But let's end on an exclusive - Livejournal will be changing its programming language! On June 31, the company will switch to a system entirely implemented in lolcode.

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