5April
News of Swing
Time to wheel out the Swingometer, looking at transfers in local council by-elections this year. Here's how it all works.
Averaging out the swings during the by-elections over the last 13 weeks, we obtain the following:
| Con from Lab | +8.21% |
|---|---|
| Con from LD | -1.19% |
| Lab from LD | -9.41% |
When we last performed this exercise, in early February, Labour was losing about 9% to each of the other parties. The flow has now become from Conservative to LD, as it was during 2005, but reversed during 2006. Applied to the Commons, we get the following range of results:
| Conservative | 306-335 |
|---|---|
| Labour | 176-227 |
| Lib Dem | 86-101 |
| Others | 31-35 |
| Conservative Overall Majority | (-38)-20 |
The central figure, the one we would put our tuppence on if we were betting people, is for the Conservatives to be short of an overall majority by 8 seats.
