29April
Forty-three different green boxes, a quarter of a billion euro, and no questions. Except one:
The election bandwagon rolls on, and comes to rest in Ireland. The 29th Dáil (parliament) since independence was elected on 17 May 2002, and had to be dissolved five years after its first meeting, on 6 June.
The governing coalition is between Fianna Fáil (FF), which held 79 seats when the Dáil last met, and the Progressive Democrats (PD), contributing 8 members. The largest opposition party is Fine Gael (FG), on 32 seats, with Labour (Lab) holding 21. The Greens (G) have 6, Sinn Fein (SF) has 5, there is one Socialist (Soc), and 14 Independent (Ind) members.
Though FF has been the largest single party for the last three decades, FG has taken the levers of power, most recently following the collapse of the Albert Reynolds government in late 1994. Bertie Ahern has been Taoiseach since the June 1997 election, and is seeking a third popular mandate. His government spends approximately €50 milliard per year.
The electoral system is based around 43 constituencies, each returning between three and five TDs. These people are elected by a single transferable vote, ensuring that most voters are responsible for electing one member. For ease of counting, surplus transfers are delayed as long as possible, there is batch transfer of losing (but not winning) candidates, and surpluses are transfered as whole votes, selected at random from the most recent additions to the winner's pile, in proportion to the transfer due. Good overview of Irish STV rules, and comparisons with other STV. More detailed examination of the system's technical failings.
The main party leaders are:
FF - Bertie Ahern
FG - Enda Kenny
Lab - Pat Rabbitte
PD - Michael McDowell
G - Trevor Sargent
SF - Gerry Adams
Soc - Joe Higgins
The policies:
FF - Centre-right nationalists, probably closest to the UK's One Nation Tories.
FG - Progressive centreists, broadly similar to the Lib Dems.
Lab - Social democrats, somewhere around Labour.
PD - Free market liberalists; there's no good UK comparison, perhaps the least bad is the Orange Book tendency within the Lib Dems.
G - Ecologists. Very similar to the UK Green party, shockingly.
SF - Hardline nationalists, tax-and-spend. The party organises in Northern Ireland.
Soc - Marxists and Trotskyists. Or Trotskyites, we never can remember which. Also organises in NI.
In the 2002 election, support for Fine Gael collapsed; the party was on the wrong end of some marginal results, and sunk to just 32 seats, its lowest result in living memory. Since then, FG has agreed a transfer pact with the Labour party; FG supporters are encouraged to list their candidates first, and then the Labour candidates; Labour supporters do the reverse.
Since 2002, support for FF has been on a downward trend, and a sondage published on 27 April showed FF would attract 33% of first-preference votes, with FG securing 31%. Labour and SF would take about 10%, the Greens 6%, and the PDs 3%. The expected coalition is FG+Lab+G; this has just less than half the first-preference votes, but may well command an overall majority.
All we need now is for Mr. Ahern to consult with president Mary Robinson, and name his date.
fx: telephone
Yes, yes, he's still here. [giggles]. No, you can't get rid of him. Not constitutionally, no. OK? OK.
hangs up
Bertie. Bertie, Bertie, Bertie. The Elector is amazed with your tenacity. You could have left this game four years ago, when I was still protesting in favour of hunting foxes. But you didn't, and I think The Elector is rewarding you. The offer - and I think you should seriously consider it - is 24 May.
Bertie Ahern, for an election on 24 May, Dáil or No Dáil?
