The Snow In The Summer or So-So

28February

The decline of Livejournal this month

The headlines

size	accounts	12391611	+218711	+1.80%
size	accounts_active_1	577158	-518	-0.09%
size	accounts_active_30	1858620	4281	+0.23%
size	accounts_active_7	1179653	-2138	-0.18%
userinfo	total	12375349	+218986	+1.80%
userinfo	updated	7941738	+97211	+1.24%
userinfo	updated_last1	223291	-3859	-1.70%
userinfo	updated_last30	1084336	-1446	-0.13%
userinfo	updated_last7	637955	-3831	-0.60%

1.8% growth overall, and a second slight uptick in the active:30 figure. Maybe it's not falling at 1.8% per year; if it were, we would expect a small fall this month.

For those reading this without seeing a previous entry, I treat userinfo:updated as a proxy for all human users.

Sex

gender	F	3394858	+57367	1.72%
gender	M	1649367	+32007	1.98%
gender	U	2030536	+52511	2.65%

Total gender declared: 7,074,761 (+141885, 2.04%) (57% of Accounts, 89% of Updated - the latter is up 1%.) The fifth month where males are signing up faster than females, we still reckon there won't be as few as two women for every man until the end of the year. By then, it's possible that Unstated gender might be pushing the top, making the sex statistics of little value.

Age

Here's a list of the ages with at least 100,000 people:

age	15	194356	620
age	16	365333	238
age	17	497234	7951
age	18	560917	13358
age	19	568294	16318
age	20	530542	15426
age	21	477391	16333
age	22	392164	17135
age	23	314087	12501
age	24	259814	10864
age	25	207515	9738
age	26	191189	7604
age	27	150464	10856
age	28	109472	5610

Modal age remains 19. Quartiles come at 18.5 (+0.1), 21.1 (+0.1), 25.2 (+0.2); the first two are consistent with the usual aging process, which will tick up by 0.1 for ten months in twelve. The noticeable skewing towards the older end continues. Total declaring an age: 5737305 (+197155, 3.56%) (81% of Sex, 72% of Updated). Both figures have moved up by one percent.

Top 20 Countries

US	3315346	33032	1.00%
RU	439991	17822	4.05%
CA	280800	3534	1.26%
UK	241409	4048	1.68%
AU	114290	1796	1.57%
UA	51589	2567	4.98%
PH	44450	888	2.00%
DE	41485	974	2.35%
SG	40931	1676	4.09%
FI	33153	692	2.09%
JP	27530	527	1.91%
NL	23111	422	1.83%
IL	17248	410	2.38%
BY	16870	820	4.86%
NZ	16576	295	1.78%
BR	15683	375	2.39%
ES	15631	380	2.43%
FR	14968	388	2.59%
SE	11115	254	2.29%
IE	10560	186	1.76%

224 other countries: 253,865

Total countries declared: 5026601 (+76964, 1.56%) (88% of those declaring an Age (-1%), 71% of Sex, 63% of Active). Belarus moves past New Zealand for position 14. The usual suspects show the fast growth - Ukraine 4.98%, Belarus 4.86%, Singapore and Russia 4.1%. Slightly slower than average growth from New Zealand, Ireland, UK, and Australia; much slower from Canada and the US. India is 151 users behind Ireland, only slightly fewer than last month.

Signups

For our purposes, the February signup month runs from 30 January to 26 February.

The trend is to have signups about 800 lower per day this month than last; six days saw more joiners than last year, but there was no kick-up towards the end of the month.

Livejournal signups, Februarys 2002-7
Total signups:
2002 - 25,891
2003 - 43,834
2004 - 291,771
2005 - 325,342
2006 - 241,868
2007 - 219,237

Syndicated feeds

Top 10
blogthings	33352	+34
postsecret	25043	+533
dictionary_wotd	16796	+4
officialgaiman	15721	+96
astronomy_picture	11107	+139
penny_arcade	9124	+122
sinfest	8722	+67
vg_cats	8283	-17
overheard_nyc	8095	+130
savage_love	7997	+53

Readership of feed ranked:
50	1370 (-29)
100	658 (-17)
200	309 (-4)
500	123 (-3)
1000	56 (-2)

The Zipf distribution allows us to approximate n = (1/k^s)*a
where n = number of readers
k = rank
s = exponent (experimentally, 1.14)
a = scalar multiple (experimentally, 126,200)

This gives a slightly different shape to last month's distribution, where s=1.10 and a=110,000.

We might extend the table:

2500	16 (-4)
5000	7 (-2)
10000	3 (-1)
25000	1 (-1)
50000	1

We're reasonably confident that between 50,000 and 70,000 feeds have at least one reader.

These are the statistics. Conclusions, as ever, are yours.

Also this month

What' Sup, Doc? - the perils of doing business with the Russian mafia.

Unsafe browsing recommended, if you're Six Apart's support, firewalls are an inconvenience.

An eye-poppingly ugly re-design to celebrate the naffness of the ROPRA awards.

danah boyd on why digital gifts just don't work.

Bobbie Johnson wrote in A Demi Grauniad,

Why ask for people's opinions if you aren't interested in what they say? Because people are lazy enough to assume that protest and participation are the same thing. It's an easy sop to armchair revolutionaries and usually scores a few brownie points too.

The real scandal is the failure of all the diggers, suggesters, stormers, petitioners and voters to hold the authorities to account. That's democracy 2.0 in action: oh yes, we can hear you. But we're just not listening.

Falling for its own mythology, Six Apart has signed up with Peanut Labs, a company that specialises in doing market research for Gen Y (a group defined by the company as those born roughly from 1980-95).

(Sidebar: Generation X, as originally defined, was those who came of age during the 1980s; roughly, those born during the 1960s. There's no letter for the forgotten generation, those of us born in the 70s, who will have to pick up the shocking mess left by the boomers and the hippykids. We digress...)

Diamond Geezer on his inability to comment on any Six Apart site, because of a broken sign-up procedure. (comments) We're slightly surprised that DG didn't slag off the Urban Hell's Best British Blog contest, but that's probably because he's in with a shout of winning.

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