1January

Hmm. Predictions from the start of last year. How badly did we do?

1. Domestic politics: Charles Kennedy will resign as Lib Dem leader, possibly straight after the current recess, more probably after the May local elections. Gone within a fortnight, forgotten by May.

2. The May elections will see some Labour gains, mainly from the Lib Dems. The Tories will make some ground, probably no more than 200 seats. This will be seen as a success for Cameron. Never under-estimate the unpopularity of the Labour party; they were drubbed, the Lib Dems stood still, and the Tories went through the roof. Chalk this as a failure.

3. Hazel Blears will join the cabinet. Ruth Kelly will leave education for a (nominal) promotion. There will be at least one change in the offices of state. Blears, yes. Kelly, yes, the former Office of the Deputy Prime Minister has to be a promotion. And changes at the Interior Ministry, and the brief splitting of the Foreign Secretary's post into European and Other jobs.

4. Entertainment: Eurovision will be won by a country that's won it before. How wrong can we be!

5. Deal or No Deal will have a brief foray into prime time, but won't be the tremendous success that some expect. Difficult to judge this one - the seven Saturday prime-time episodes were more miss than hit, and the week in the summer failed to set the world afire, but the shows had tricky opposition, and the yuletide double-bill may have worked. Call this a draw.

6. The first signs of 90s nostalgia will appear. One two-hour programme on the Kent Messenger radio network per week is more than last year, but not a hit.

7. A major singles retailer will cease to stock the format. ROPRA will allow download-only singles to chart. Smiths no longer sells the single, and tracks without a physical equivalent are entitled to chart from to-day.

8. There will be the beginnings of a backlash against the digital television conversion process. This won't be enough to delay the switchover timetable yet, though it may do in the future. No sign of this yet, though there are mutterings about the BBC having to pay from the license fee to do the government's dirty work. Watch this one over the next two years.

9. Dick and Dom will have a primetime hit. No.

10. Cricket: England will draw the away test series against India, and beat both Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. Australia will have regained the Ashes by the end of next year. England will fall out of the Champions' Trophy in the last 8; this tournament will be replaced by a 20/20 cup for its next running. With the exception of the 20/20 cup replacing the Trophy (the two will run side-by-side), a hit.

11. Rugby: France will win the Six Nations. Yes, but only on points difference from Ireland.

12. Football: Rangers will not finish in a European League or UEFA Cup spot, and will (successfully) try their luck in the Intertoto. It went down to the wire, but they did take an automatic place.

13. Chelsea, Reading, Huddersfield, Wycombe, and Exeter will win Divisions I to V in England. Celtic, St Mirren, Gretna, and Stenhousemuir will retain their leads in Scotland. Southend beat Huddersfield into fourth in Division III, Wycombe finished sixth in Division IV, and Exeter seventh in Division V. In Scotland, Cowdenbeath finished three points clear of Stenhousemuir in Division D. Five out of nine right, a draw.

14. Biathlon: Bjorndalen will win Olympic golds, plural. True.

15. Football: The World Cup will be won by a side from outside the top eight seeds. We don't know who won the cup, for France and Italy will not complete their home-and-away deciders until next autumn. Both were in the top eight seeds, so no.

16. Environment: There will be a fashion for home-installed solar panels. This has just about come to pass.

17. A European government will impose a small tax on airline fuel. This has not.

18. International politics: There will be no firm progress towards a settlement on the West Bank, following an inconclusive election in Israel. More true than false, sadly.

19. The occupying powers will set a timetable to withdraw from Iraq; this will be completed during 2007. Nope.

20. Africa will be less important than this year. A doozy, yes.

21. The beginning of organised protests from outside the country against the Australian government's immigration policies. Not seen this.

22. Mugabe will be removed as Zimbabwe's dictator, but lives will be little changed. Sadly not.

23. Lifestyle: Fashion will see a brief return to ultra-formal wear from the 50s. Didn't see it, but then I don't do fashion.

24. There'll be more takeover speculation at Marks and Sparks. No.

25. The bagel will be the new pasty. No.

26. Finance: The dollar will go down, European shares will be broadly flat. The dollar did slide, but shares were up 15%.

27. The completely outside bet: discounting Family Affairs, and including Casualty, Holby City and The Bill, there will be less soap on the five main channels than the 16.5 hours this autumn. Only marginally - there was a net loss of just 3 hours during the 14-week autumn season.

Of these 27 predictions, I got nine right, fourteen wrong, and four were too close to call.

Coming up

1. Start with a feelgood story: William Windsor and Kate Middleton announce their engagement.
2. The junta is forced to act over global warming, but December's Bali conference on global warming will end in acrimony.
3. Mister Blair will announce his resignation within ten days of May's local elections. Neither he nor John Prescott will take a place in the new leader's cabinet.
4. The new Labour leadership ticket will be Brown / Blears.
5. No early election for Gordon, he'll ride out the goadings from Cameron.
6. The grass-roots campaign against multiculturalism in the UK will step up a gear, sparking racial disturbances in at least one town or city. Prime minister Brown (get used to it) will announce a headline-grabbing bill in the Throne Speech.
7. Council funding becomes a hot topic as council tax rises ahead of inflation again. PM Brown will avoid acting.
8. The British constitutional settlement will be much debated amongst the chattering classes. The Conservatives will make mutterings about returning power from Whitehall to local communities.
9. French presidential elections go to the second round, where Royal beats Sarkozy by 4%.
10. Sr. Berlusconi avoids jail.
11. Unrest continues in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no end in sight.
12. Another general election in Canada sees the Liberals returned as the largest party.
13. With the exception of Sudan, Africa continues to slip off the world agenda: this is positive news, for there are fewer conflicts to report.
14. Oil will finish the year around €40 per barrel.
15. On to the fripperies. The cricket world cup will be won by Australia. England will finish in the bottom half of the eight-team stage.
16. The rugby world cup will be won by New Zealand. England will lose in the quarter-finals; Ireland the only home nation to make the semis.
17. Werder Bremen will win the UEFA Cup, defeating Newcastle en route. Chelsea will win the European League, but cede the Football League to Manchester Buccaneers. Schalke 04 will win the 1. Bundesliga.
18. The BC Lions will retain the Grey Cup.
19. Deal or No Deal has peaked; the ratings in early December next year will be below this year's 3.8 million.
20. Television viewing will decline further, and the BARB measurement will not exceed 24 hours per person per week between 1 June and 27 October.
21. Further tinkering with the singles tracks chart, to exclude oldies from the chart as played on Radio 1.
22. Terry Wogan announces his retirement from Radio 2's breakfast show.
23. Lizo leaves Newsround for a job with the big boys.
24. Konnie Huq leaves Blue Peter for a job on Radio 5.
25. And the long-shot: ITV will enter into an arrangement short of merger with a European broadcaster.

How these predictions turned out

Miscellany