The Snow In The Summer or So-So

31January

The new face of Livejournal?

The end of another month means another installment in the ongoing saga of Livejournal's continued slow-motion collapse. Or should that read, Livejournal's continued conversion from a site for North American teens to one for Cyrillic-writing twentysomethings. Here's the details:

The headlines

size	accounts	12172900 (+247567, 2.08%)
size	accounts_active_1	577676 (+88542)
size	accounts_active_30	1854339 (+45400, +2.51%)
size	accounts_active_7	1181791 (+85785, +7.83%)
userinfo	total	12156363 (+245410, 2.06%)
userinfo	updated	7844527 (+113256, 1.46%)
userinfo	updated_last1	227150 192288 (+34862)
userinfo	updated_last30	1085782 1075476 (+10306, +0.96%)
userinfo	updated_last7	641786 596644 (+45142, +7.57%)

Faster growth this month than last, and active_30 and active_7 are higher than they've been for a couple of months.

For those reading this without seeing a previous entry, I treat userinfo:updated as a rough figure for accounts created by people, rather than communities and RSS feeds.

Gender

gender	F	3337491 3270136 (+67355, 2.06%)
gender	M	1617360 1580353 (+37007, 2.34%)
gender	U	1978025 1917539 (+60486, 3.15%)

Total gender declared: 6,932,876 (+164828, 2.43%) (57% of Accounts, 88% of Updated - both figures unchanged.) Another month where males sign up slightly faster than females; it'll still be the end of the year before the ratio is 2:1.

Age

Here's a list of the ages with at least 100,000 people:

age	15	193736	1006
age	16	365095	-636
age	17	489283	10625
age	18	547559	15893
age	19	551976	18193
age	20	515116	18280
age	21	461058	16348
age	22	375029	19537
age	23	301586	14438
age	24	248950	11388
age	25	197777	10746
age	26	183585	1063
age	27	139608	18578
age	28	103862	NEW

Modal age remains 19. Quartiles come at 18.4 (+0.1), 21.0 (+0.1), 25.0 (+0.3); the first two are consistent with the usual aging process, but there's a noticeable skewing towards older people here. Total declaring an age: 5,540,190 (+242377, 4.58%) (80% of Gender, 71% of Updated). Both figures have moved up by a couple of percent.

Top 20 Countries

US	3282314	39820
RU	422169	18834
CA	277266	4502
UK	237361	4689
AU	112494	2257
UA	49022	2444
PH	43562	958
DE	40511	1098
SG	39255	2057
FI	32461	880
JP	27003	592
NL	22689	424
IL	16838	495
NZ	16281	390
BY	16050	888
BR	15308	380
ES	15251	461
FR	14580	443
SE	10861	311
IE	10374	258

224 other countries: 247,987

Total countries declared: 4,949,637 (+88575, 1.82%) (89% of those declaring an Age (-1%), 71% of Gender, 63% of Active (+1%)). No change to the order of the top 20, but Belarus exhibits 5.9% growth and could leap two places next month. Singapore (5.5%), Ukraine (5.2%), and Russia (4.7%) show fast growth - between them, these four countries are responsible for 10% of all account growth. We may well hypothesise that the biggest growth area at the moment is in people in their late 20s from Russia-Ukraine-Belarus. Slower than trend growth from Canada (1.7%) and the US (1.2%).

India now has over 10,000 declared members, and is less than 200 behind Ireland; a place in next month's top 20 is possible.

Signups

For our purposes, the January signup month runs from 30 December to 29 January.

Livejournal signups, Januarys 2002-7

The trend is to have signups about 500 lower per day this month than last; five days saw more joiners than last year.

Total signups:
2002 - 28,514
2003 - 47,432
2004 - 323,651
2005 - 358,273
2006 - 255,410
2007 - 239,231

It's worth noting that this figure is about 8000 (4%) smaller than the growth in raw accounts cited above. We do not have an explanation for this.

Syndicated feeds

Top 10
Blogthings	33318	12
PostSecret	24510	779
Word of the Day	16792	203
Neil Gaiman's Journal	15625	206
Astronomy Picture of the Day	10968	269
Penny-Arcade	9002	123
Sinfest	8655	95
VG Cats	8300	22
Overheard in New York	7965	212
Dan Savage	7944	113

Readership of feed ranked:
50	1399 (+92)
100	675 (+28)
200	313 (+16)
500	126 (+12)
1000	58 (+6)

The Zipf distribution allows us to approximate n = (1/k^s)*a
where n = number of readers
k = rank
s = exponent (experimentally, 1.10)
a = scalar multiple (experimentally, 110,000)

This gives a broadly similar shape to last month's distribution, where s=1.13 and a=117,000.

We might extend the table:

2500	20 (+3)
5000	9 (+1)
10000	4
25000	2 (+1)
50000	1

These are the statistics. Conclusions, as ever, are yours.

Other notes this month:

* Kudos to the resistance for correctly crediting the Sunday Times. Not the London Sunday Times, or the Sunday Times of London, but the Sunday Times. Being able to accurately credit a newspaper should not be difficult - the paper's name is only printed on every single page - but this simple task is beyond something like 90% of overseas citers.

* There's also a gripe from Bradley Fitzpatrick, who we now know sold his business for a mere 10 million US dollars (then £5.5 million). We told you they were a bunch of shysters, dearie. No use crying to us now...

* While announcing a new and improved search engine, official spokesblogger Deflatermouse crossed the line between laughing with your customers and laughing at them.

* Livejournal's official spokesblogs began to show advertisements, in direct contradiction to promises when advertisements were added. What were we saying about shysters..?

* The last Lebrecht Live of the current run featured Mena Trott as one of five commentators discussing if blogs could be art. It would be unfair to single out Mrs. Trott for her poor contributions; none of the panellists was on particularly good form, and even host Norman Lebrecht was firing blanks. A few points of interest from Mrs Trott: in her opening statement, some sharp direction from Mr. Lebrecht ensures she cannot fit in a plug for whatever her company's new product is.

She repeated her call for bloggers to be polite and trustworthy; when LiveJournalers [sic] worried that we're going to ... plaster their sites with advertisements. (We're not going to do this) (source) becomes trustworthy again, I shall no longer feel the need to remind Mrs. Trott about her fecking arsehole comment. Mrs. Trott appears to treat The Colbert Report as a serious news programme, and hopes that her renegade country follows the terrorists and corporatists parodied on that show.

But the telling point came about half-way through the programme, when Mrs. Trott said that the most popular are usually the most dull. She was speaking about the actual blogs, but her point has equal validity for blogging platforms. Readers may hear last Sunday's show, at least until next Sunday.

Six Apart Is Rubbish